Closing out the year...with baited breath

We closed out December with 1,197 Homes being sold through our Multiple Listing Service of Greater Cincinnati and 16,903 homes sold in all of 2010.  How does that compare to last year you ask?  I'm glad you did!

Comparatively, we sold 9.80% fewer homes in December of 2010 than we did in December 2009.  I can try to dig into the bright side here but quite frankly, I don't have the energy for it.  Let's face it, that number stinks; now - let's get on with getting on.  As we look overall through 2010, we can see that home prices do seem to have stabilized a bit, and while inventory still seems a high for the volume (or lack thereof) of buyers in the market we seem to be moving in a positive direction.  As an added benefit, rent prices are increasing and with continued low rates and still depressed home prices it can quickly become advantageous for renters to buy.

For the year of 2010, we sold 16,903 homes which is 10.15% fewer homes than were sold in 2009 but as I said earlier the median price of homes is 0.88% positive over the median price of homes sold in 2009.  If you are a "glass is half full" kind of person this number is for you.  I could make it look better by reporting the "Average" - but I don't really like averages and I feel that the median numbers give us a much better view of what the market is REALLY doing.

Getting inside these numbers we see a few things. #1 - Lender involvement in the above numbers for 2010 is just above 30%.  That means that over 30% of 2010's sales where short sales, foreclosure properties, etc.  Believe it or not that number is down by -1.23% over 2009.  But don't expect that number to decline anymore through 2011 - in fact, it may approach closer to 40% again by the time the year is out.  #2 - Lenders are sitting on close to 3 Million properties that are currently over 3 months delinquent in their mortgage payments.  This is a problem that will not be going away in a year or two.  You could look at this foreclosure market a variety of ways.  For another view of this you can visit The Angry Capitalist and enjoy Dan's insight on the housing market - the economy and what's wrong with the world, and you for that matter!  There are some good reads there - I don't agree with all of them but he's a smart guy and I always enjoy a different perspective.  We've got a long way to go here and I expect 2011 will provide us with some ups and downs - much like 2010.  What this country needs right now are jobs!  Solve that quandary and you will be amazed at how quickly other things will follow suit.

My advice, if you are thinking about putting your house on the market - think long and hard about why.  And before you do, consult with a REALTOR® to find out what the market is willing to pay for your home.  A good plan, starts with good planning.

Chris Wood
chris@chrisjwood.com

November 2010 Sales Report

Continuing to move through a slow fourth quarter, there were some positive signs through November...but not many.  From the December sales report published by the Cincinnati Area Board of Realtors:

"Home sales continued their 2010 advancement in November, with 1,092 homes sold (closed) last 

month, and 15,668 for the first 11 months of the year.  That represented decreases of 31% and 10%, 

respectively, from comparable periods one year ago.

Looking forward, November real estate contracts written – but not yet closed – were down only 

2.3% from a year ago.  Another favorable note:  November home sale prices increased by 0.78% from a year ago, and  5.2% year to date.

Tim Mahoney, president of the Cincinnati Area Board of Realtors, said “We would like to have 

seen more sales activity this year, but with a “less-than-stellar” jobs situation nationwide, we’re fortunate 

the local market wasn’t hit hard in housing sales, as were many parts of the nation.”  Mahoney continued, “I think the public realizes that mortgage rates have bottomed, and if  prospective home buyers are serious about buying, they’ll appreciate that today’s rates near 5% are still attractive."

Attractive yes, but on the climb.  Rates have slightly, although steadily, throughout the month of December.  Although, after sitting that low for so long, we all expected them to climb sooner rather than later.  I must admit that a dip in the rates after the new year...or perhaps well timed with some good weather in late Winter / Early Spring would be a welcome sight!

What continues to cause the largest problem is the job front...no job equals not much buying power.  Ohio has got to put jobs on the front burner. (Hint, Hint, new incoming Governor).  CABR continues on the job front with this;

“A continuation of improvement in the Ohio unemployment rate should help the housing market,” 

said Mahoney.  The November, seasonally adjusted jobless rate in Ohio was 9.8%.  It peaked at 10.8% 

one year ago.   Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates are somewhat lower for the nation, Ohio and 

southwest Ohio"  Lower for the Nation, yes, but still a cause for concern.

I do expect rates to dip sometime after the first of the year - if housing prices hold steady through that time, and we see an increase in local jobs, we should see a positive first quarter.  If, If, IF...Yes, I know - that's more if's than we need right now.  For now, I hope you and your families have an enjoyable New Year's, and that you are greeted with happiness and contentment!  And if you or someone you know could use some real estate advice, please feel free to contact me.  I'm always available.

Christmas Dinner

Grilled Beef Tenderloin with Yorkshire Pudding!  Happy Times!

Going to the grown up service tonight!

Townhome for Sale in Deerfield Township, Ohio

Recently listed, this 2 bedroom, 3 Bath end unit Townhome has a recently updated kitchen
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and a HUGE green space with plenty of room for games!

An attached one car garage with direct access to the kitchen make getting the groceries in easy. This Condo is located in Deerfield Township, Ohio, within walking distance to shopping, great parks, restuarants and plenty of recreation.

Email me to arrange your personal tour!

Can a Professional Photographer Sell my House?

Okay, so you're ready to put your home on the market, you have cleaned, painted, repaired, landscaped, staged and have your home looking downright perfect!  As you interview the prospective REALTORS® one states that they will have a photographer come out and photograph your home.  They tell you that visually, this is what is needed to really make your listing standout online.  You think to yourself, "self - that sounds hard to argue with" so you hire that agent and their brokerage and then....wait - and then... wait - and then...well, you get the idea.  You notice that your listing is online, but there are no photos - and since this is such a popular service, you have to wait for up to 14 days before the photographer can get to your home.  Meanwhile, in listing land, numerous buyers have passed up your listing, quite possibly never to return, because you have no photos.  When was the last time you bought a pair of boots online with no idea of what they looked like?  Right, me too.

So, how do you avoid this?  Simply, make sure your agent does not put your listing in until all photos are taken and approved by you, for one.  But there is more at work here that you need to be aware of.  Are these "Photographers" really photographers?  Or are they just someone that was hired to take photos?  In my experience with professional photographers - well, they're expensive.  They kind of need to be since one of those little cameras can cost upwards of $10,000 - not to mention the lenses, the lighting, the stands, the training, and the trade organizations.  Yes, that's right, just like REALTORS® Photographers have organizations that they belong to.  They are not required to belong to them, but much like Home Inspectors, I don't know that you would want to hire one that wasn't a member.  My point, make sure you know what you are getting.

There are, for example, the Professional Photographers of America, the American Society of Media Photographers, or more locally, the Professional Photographers of Ohio.  While membership to these organizations is not mandatory, it at least tells you that this photographer is serious - these things cost money after all.  Your first question when bringing this up should probably be to see the photographer's resume and go from there.  Also, question if they have liability insurance, and ask to see it.  If they're coming into your home, lugging equipment around, you want to know they have coverage before they knock over that gargoyle fountain your mother-in-law gave you as a wedding gift. *ahem*

Most importantly, and I can't stress this enough, do NOT put your listing in the MLS or online, without having images to go along with it!  No one will look at it, in fact they will say, "clearly something is wrong with that one.  There must be a reason the seller doesn't want to show anyone what the house looks like".  Trust me - that's what they're saying.  So while a professional photographer is great, do you really need one?  With camera technology today, most agents can take pretty good photos of your home and property.  Just make sure that they do and that they get them online when the listing goes active!  Otherwise, what are you selling?

How Long Does It Take To Sell My Home In Cincinnati?

If you are a number cruncher - you are going to like today's post.  Looking at some early numbers from the Great Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service we can determine what our Absorption Rate is, (Absorption Rate is the time it will take to sell the current amount of inventory based on current sales activity).  Based on these early numbers from our MLS, we can determine how many months it will take to sell all the homes currently listed for sale by REALTORS®.  It is important to note, that inventory numbers can go up or down at any time, which is why it is important to review these numbers month to month.

Why, you ask?  Well, it's that math that you swore you would never have to use, and it helps us to determine trends in the market.  The numbers I've looked at are for the overall market in Cincinnati, so while it gives us a snapshot of homes for sale in Cincinnati, it is a view from 10,000 feet - so to speak.

For these calculations I'm looking at Residential Sales, or Single Family Homes and Condos specifically.  So far in 2010 we have sold 12,144 of these.  That's 1,518 properties sold per month on Average.  Taking into account our current number of Homes for Sale of 14,985 it will take us 9.87 months to sell through the current level of inventory.  At the end of July, 2010 we were looking at over 12 months worth of Inventory.  In the past month or so, we have seen a decline of homes for sale - folks taking their homes off the market, less inventory, lower absorption rate.  But I believe this number will climb to much higher than 12 months by the end of the year.

Now, some perspective on that 9+months:
According to the National Association of REALTORS®  a 6 month supply is considered a "balanced market", or one where there are an equal number of properties for sale as there are buyers.  This type of market would show a stabilization of home prices as well as Days On Market.  Over 6 months is considered a "Buyer's Market", essentially inventory is high compared to the number of buyers.  In this type of market; like we're in now, we typically see declining prices and longer times for homes to sell.  Under 6 months is considered, yep you guessed it, a Seller's Market.  We experienced that in the 90's up until about 2006.  You remember, homes selling so fast it would make your head spin, bidding wars, buy a house now at $150,000 to sell it two years later at $200,000.  Allowing home owners to pull equity out of their homes and now that home is worth $125,000 - which makes it difficult to sell.

This makes pricing your home even more important!  Take the time to plan ahead and have your REALTOR® calculate the Absorption Rate for your specific area.  Real Estate is Local - in fact it's Hyper-Local.  Prices and rates between local school districts and even neighborhoods can vary greatly.  If you want the facts - ask a REALTOR® - HEY ask me!